Okay, you think rising oil prices will be a headwind for consumers in the second half of the year. ”So what does this mean for the market, where will the S&P 500 trade at year end?”
We hear this question way too often. Raise your hand if you want to hear this poison. Would anyone disagree that the world would be better off without James Glassman or Marc Faber?
Prognosticators views are typically binary, good or bad. Their is a great irony here; peoples’ ability to consistently predict the future is no better than 50%. The only time that you might be able to pull a nugget of wisdom is when the prognosticators all agree, then it’s fade city.
Forget about forecasting. Learning about the history of cycles and recognizing where we are now is a far better use of your time.
See 1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
See Also Gold could go to infinity